The Public finance The first quarter of 2022 showed positive statistics. Due to the good performance of financial accounts High price Of PetroleumAn increase Revenue collection And increase Economic activity In the country.
During this period, government revenue was USD 6,531 million, which is 25% more than the same period in 2021, when USD 5,239 million was earned. Ministry of Finance.
In the first quarter of the year there is a Surplus USD 46 million, but if the financing account for Deficit Derivatives (CFDD) is excluded, the surplus will reach USD 423 million, Fasto Ortiz explained, the former finance minister. For analysis, this item has been removed because it is needed to cover the country’s fuel imports.
As a result, this Partial surplus It is not an indicator of how the year will end. Ortiz recalls that the first quarter of 2020 had a surplus of 1 451 million, more than at present; And at the end of the year, the deficit reached USD 6,488 million, the largest in a decade.
Rising oil prices
In the first quarter of 2022, its cost Ecuador is crude It averaged 87 87 per barrel Collision Come in Russia Y. Ukraine. In 2021 it was 54 54, according to the central bank.
The Oil revenue They reached USD 678 million, which is three times more than was registered in the same month of 2021, when it reached only USD 151 million.
However, the income may be higher. One of the goals of the President William Lasso Oil production needs to increase, although it has not reached the level of the previous year. Currently, production does not reach 500,000 barrels per day; This number has been exceeded in the first month of 2021.
Collections of taxes, fees and other contributions exceeded 4 4 billion between January and March. Only TaxesThe Internal rental service (SRI) collected USD 3,708 million. The Add value (VAT) is the heaviest, USD 1,961 million, which is 25% more than the same period last year.
According to Gustavo Vallejo, an economic analyst, this is one of the reasons High cost After a two-year ban Extreme. “Economic policy revolves around the movement of money. This pushes the productive machinery to produce more. “
The Financial accounting Quarterly was because they were explained Limitations It is To spend. The state accumulated this month Debt For about মিল 900 million.
For example, the government did not disburse 15 415 million Social Security For 40% contribution to pension insurance. Also, those GAD They owe 300 million. In other words, with higher incomes, the financial situation tends to be more limited.
Except Public investment Practically paralyzed From January to March, this Investment I know Reduce By 82% compared to 2021; It went from USD 378 million to USD 65 million.
For Valejo, the government needs to think seriously Cover The Debt With these two fronts, to boost the local economy.
‘USD 1,416 million allocated for government debt’
James Carrera. Fiscal Policy Observatory
Debt services, i.e., interest payments and repayments on domestic and foreign public debt in the first quarter of 2022 amounted to US 1, 1,416 million. The weight of the debt is going to be important for Ecuador, although junk bonds were discussed last year. Despite higher tax revenues and higher oil revenues, the financial situation remains fragile. Growth is expected to be lower than the central bank’s 2.8% forecast.
“Reasons for higher collection as part of tax reform”
Alberto Acosta B., editor of Weekly Analysis
After two years of epidemics, tax collection goes hand in hand with reactivation. Sales are increasing and so is VAT collection. But this is an effect of last year’s tax reform, which is expected to raise an additional USD 800 million in 2022. In other words, not all taxes are collected because the economy has grown, but an important part is because the tax burden has increased significantly and, from my point of view, it will be a cost in terms of growth.